The RCVS has published a forecast of the supply and demand for veterinary surgeons and nurses up to 2035, predicting that there will be an oversupply of veterinary nurses in private clinical practice by 2025.

The model for the forecast was developed by the College with the Institute of Employment Studies using data from the RCVS Registers, the 2019 and 2024 Surveys of the Professions, Office for National Statistics data for projected economic growth and the PDSA’s Animal Wellbeing (PAW) Reports.

However, the model does not take account of the impact of the increasing costs of veterinary care on pet ownership trends, the full effect of which may not yet have been felt.

The main predictions of the model are:

• The supply of veterinary nurses in private clinical practice is projected to increase from approximately 97% in 2023, to a surplus of 28% in 2035. 
• The number of vet nurses on the Register is projected to increase by 78% between 2023 and 2035, reaching 41,200. 
• Growth is faster among the older age groups, with the proportion of vet nurses aged 40 and over projected to increase from 30% of the total in 2023 to 38% in 2035. 
• The number of vet nurses in clinical practice (where the majority of vet nurses work) is expected to increase by more than the overall average (86% compared with 78%). 
• The number of FTE vet nurses is projected to increase by 72% between 2023 and 2035 (compared to the increase in headcount of 78%) and the average FTE across all vet nurses is projected to fall from 0.84 in 2023 to 0.81 in 2035. 
• In private clinical practice, the supply of veterinary surgeons is projected to increase from 91% of total demand in 2023 to nearly 99% in 2035. 

Lizzie Lockett, RCVS Chief Executive Officer, said: “In 2021, there were clear concerns about there being a workforce crisis within the veterinary professions, and while that certainly seemed to be the case, and is likely to continue to be so in the short-term, according to this model the future picture for the professions looks much better in most areas of veterinary practice.

“We are aware that there may be some concerns about the implications of the model, particularly concerning the potential oversupply of veterinary nurses.

"While we stand by the robustness of the data, demography is not destiny, and with the planned enhancement of the veterinary nurse role, and the likelihood of suppressed demand due to prior shortages, it is likely that the number of veterinary nursing roles will expand to encompass the number of veterinary nurses available to work in it.

“Finally, we are aware that there are also some limitations to the model in its current form, for example, in terms of regional data.

"This is a work in progress, and we will continue to update and improve the model as and when new data allows.”

The workforce modelling report is available to download from www.rcvs.org.uk/publications

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